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아연동북아총서

[아연동북아총서] 31. Notrheast Asia in 2030

Choi Byung-il 지음 출판일: 2018.08.01 판매가: 19,000 원 2019.07.02 Views 2019.07.02

아연 동북아 총서 31
Northeast Asia in 2030 - Forging Ahead or Drifting Away? | ARI Monograph Series 31 
Choi Byung-il (지은이) 아연출판부 2018-08-01 판매가 19,000원

 

Rise of Assertive China
Emergence of the New Normal
Whither Northeast Asia?
 
This book is an attempt to project future trajectories of trade architecture of Northeast Asia by 2030.  Notwithstanding political asymmetry among the nations, the interplay of globalization and national strategy has transformed Northeast Asia as one of the most vibrant and prosperous economic zones in the world. The spectacular rise of Northeast Asia in the global footprint has accompanied the rise of China from the largest poor nation to the world factory. By 2030, barring major crisis, China would have become or about to become the largest economy in the world, overtaking the US.
As the rise of China continues, China is getting own interest, disregarding the existing rules of the game. China's trade retaliation on the deployment of THAAD in Korea is a case in point. The fiasco laid bare rather fragile institutional foundation and the inherent risk of economic architecture of Northeast Asia. Advance of digital technological breakthrough and the surge of nationalism and population with the receding globalism threat to disrupt the existing economic architecture of Northeast Asia. Moreover, the election of Trump and consolidating power of Xi gave rise to "New Normal", where rule-based free trade is giving into power-based managed trade. Without strengthening institutional foundation, upgrading economic architecture, and ensuring inclusive growth, the future navigation of Northeast Asia confronts greater uncertainties and risks. Will Northeast Asia forge ahead with common interface or drift away with fragmentation? This book offers an eye into the future from strategic and two-level perspective of linking international affairs to domestic political economy.
 
 

 

필자 소개

 

Byung-il Choi is a professor and the former Dean of the Graduate School of International Studies. Prior to joining the GSIS in 1997 as a founding faculty, he was a trade negotiator representing the Korean government. He was the Korean chief negotiator for the WTO basic telecom negotiations (1994-1997). He negotiated service agreement and the telecom annex at the Uruguay Round, the Korea-US telecom agreement, and the Korea-EU telecom agreement. He led the Korean initiative of the Asia-Pacific Information Infrastructure (APII) at the APEC Summit to reduce the information divide. His contribution was appreciated as instrumental in Korea’s rise to the global leader in the information and communication sector, as recognized by the two medals of excellence from the Korean government. 

Professor Choi the Founder and President of the Free Trade Academia - Professors for Free Trade, the Vice President of the United Nations Association-ROK, and a member of Trade Negotiations Advisory Council for the government of Korea. Most recently, he was the President of the Korea Economic Research Institute, a leading think tank representing the Korean business sector. He was a member of the National Economic Advisory Council for the President of Korea, and also a member of advisory council for the Ministry of Foreign Affair and Trade. He served the President of the Korea Association of Negotiation Studies and the President for the Korean Association of Trade and Industry Studies. 

Professor Choi has been a regular speaker to many high-profile international fora, including US-Korea Forum, Beijing Forum, Shanghai Forum, Korea-Japan Strategic Dialogue, Korea-US-China Trilateral Dialogue. His opinion has been printed in major Korea media outlet. His book, the Success and Failure of Trade Negotiations of Korea (2004), earned him the Korean Academy of Arts and Sciences Award. His book, The KORUS FTA: Against the All Odds (in Korean, 2006) was the national best-seller. His book includes China, New Paradigm (2016), A Nation Haunted by the Top 1%: Rebuilding Korean Economy (2014). His new book, North East Asia in 2030: Forging Ahead or Drifting Away? is forthcoming. 

Professor Choi received B.A. from Seoul National University and Ph.D. in economics from Yale. He was visiting professor at George Washington University, Grinnell College and Ghent University. 

Research Negotiations Strategy, Trade Policy, Global Economic Governance, Political Economy of East Asia, US-China Relations, Trade Architecture in East Asia 

 

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Figures and Tables 5

Abbreviation and Acronym 7

Foreword 9

Preface 12

Acknowledgments 17

1. Northeast Asia at Crossroads 22

2. Ideology-Institution-Technology Nexus in Northeast Asia 45

3. Setting the Stage towards Deep Integration: 83

The First Decade of the New Millennium

4. Trade Architecture Competition in the 2010s 116

5. Emergence of the New Normal 170

6. Undercurrent, Risk, and Strategic Imperative 198

7. Looking to the Future: 242

Trajectories to Northeast Asia 2030

8. Future in the Making 260

Reference 271

Abstract 278

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