Title: An Uneasy But Durable Brotherhood? : Revisiting China's Alliance Strategy and North Korea

Author: Dong-jun Lee, HK Research Professor

Article Citation: GEMC Journal, No. 6 (March 2012), pp. 120-136.

Abstract

This article argued that the Sino-North Korean alliance treaty in 1961 was a product of the China’s strategic behavior based on its national interest rather than North Korea’s leadership. Of course, this conclusion is not to underestimate North Korea’s "calculated behavior" demonstrated in the Sino-Soviet rift. The treaty could be concluded because North Korea also had a national interest in it. Nonetheless, reexamining the process of the treaty formation, it is clear that the treaty reflects the Chinese strategic thinking more strongly. It suggests that China’s perspective on North Korea’s strategic value according to transitions in international environment and China’s national interests could be a key barometer of the durability of their alliance.

Over the years since the end of the Cold War, however, China has adjusted its foreign policy to new domestic and international conditions, and as a result the Sino-North Korean alliance has been evaluated to loseits original strategic importance in the implementation of security commitment. Especially, the latest round of North Korea’s provocations made Beijing’s balancing act between supporting a traditional ally and responding to its dangerous brinkmanship more difficult.

Nonetheless, it is also true that the Sino-North Korean alliance still remains legally binding as a symbol for the continuity of the bilateral relationship. Moreover, Beijing’s economic and political support for Pyongyang appears to have waved little, in spite of increasingly provocative and risky actions taken by Pyongyang. This means that Beijing still has a wide variety of reasons to maintain its alliance with Pyongyang.

There could be all kinds of explanations, but the Sino-North Korean alliance based on their treaty are expected to last for quite a long time. First, in view of treaty itself, it would be not easy for China to revise or terminate the treaty. According to Article Ⅶof the treaty, China cannot legally amend or abolish the treaty without prior mutual agreement. Furthermore, China should "continue to consult with each other on all important international questions of common interest to the two states"in accordance with the provision of Article Ⅳ.

Second, what's more important is that as China contemplates the future, North Korea’s strategic value has increased. Even though economic aid to North Korea is a burden for China, and political support for North Korea places China in challenging circumstances, China seeks greater influence beyond simply a patron’s role; it has become an active player in a wide variety of diplomatic and economic areas and holds a strategic stake in the Korean Peninsula. China knows that its severance or at least modification of the bilateral alliance could undermine its diplomatic leverage vis-à-vis North Korea, which could destabilize the delicate balance of power in Northeast Asia. Furthermore, According to Shen Dingli, North Korea acts as a guard post for China, keeping at bay the tens of thousands of U.S. troops stationed in South Korea. This allows China to reduce its military deployment in Northeast China and focus more directly on the issue of Taiwanese independence.

On the other hand, China also knows that a conflict on the peninsula is problematic for its economic growth. Beijing thus wants desperately to maintain stability in North Korea, and has adopted a proactive posture with a foreign policy wish list of five "no’s": No instability, no collapse, no nuclear weapons, no refugees, and no conflict escalation. By doing so, China is able to formulate its own favorable security environment to achieve its national objective.

In brief, although the Sino-North Korean alliance looks like a unilateral alliance for ensuring North Korea’s regime survival, China gets significant collateral benefits by maintaining it. Therefore, when it comes to security issues on the Korean Peninsula, China will continue to seek to act as the most important player to guarantee its interests. As long as North Korea has strategic values in Northeast Asia, China will maintain its special relationship based on the Sino-North Korean alliance treaty.